Numberline Table

ACD Trading Types

1: Aup 2: Adown 3:Cup 4:Cdown
5: Change in trend
6: Failed Point A
7: Failed A against/withih the pivot.
8: Failed C
9: failed Cagainst the pivot
10: Good new's /bad action.
11: Island Reversal Formation.
12: late day C pivot.
13: MAD
14: Micro ACD
15: MAF
16: Out side reversal week.
17: Pivot first hour high and low.
18: Point A through the pivot.
19: point C through the pivot.
20: Reversal trade
21: Sushi roll.
22: SFT
23: TRT
24: Two way swing area.

Times OR & TR

http://aboutforex.com/timezones.html

A's & C's

Euro = 10/12.5 --- Cad 7/7 --- Chf 11/22 --- Jpy 8/15 --- I think 10/15% works too.

#600
We are not 100% sure how Mark calculates A and CI took a trial subscription to their web site, and what is clear to me is that the A and C are actually not that important in quantum.We (Charlie and I) have agreed on a calculationwe use which is 10% of the higher of the 10 or 30 day ATR for A, and 15% for CUse ours or choose your own, but once you do Stick to it.

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http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=199263#post199263post199263

For Forex, A and C figures given recently on Mark B. Fisher's website include:-USD/CHF: A = 11 pips, C = 22

pipsEUR/USD: A = 10 pips, C = 12.5 pipsUSD/JPY: A = 8 pips, C = 15 pipsUSD/CAD A = 7 pips, C = 7 pips

MarkB. Fisher has also been quoted as saying that for Forex trading with his ACD system, you can in general take 10% of the ATR(10) for the A figure, and 15% of the ATR(10) for the C figure, and that this "system" will be about as reliable as any other way of working it out.

#605The true range is the highest of the difference between the previous days close and todays low, the previous days close and todays high, todays high and todays low.That gives you the true range for the current day (at the end of the day)You then need to take the average of the last 10 days and the last 30 days.The important thing about the ATR though is that it takes volatility into account, which will avoid whipsaws (hopefully)#1246I decided to take 10% of the daily ATR(14), which by coincidence matched up with the Daily Pivot differential(page 38). As for pivots I use 3pm-3pm on the dailys.

ENTRY Management

#511c
I don't even look for a entry now,before the US open.on any pair,reguardless if they make a A ,C, rubberband ect.
#565
Large pivot ranges = risky

EXIT Management

For traders using multiple contracts, they can start say by 3 contracts and take profits at different points as follows:Exit 1 contract at Entry Price + X tics equavalent to risk tics.Exit 1 contract at Entry Price + 2 * Risk ticsExit last contract at market on close for very good trending days.The above can be done by any good Front Entry Platform connected to your broker.The above is only a suggestion and serves to trade 3 systems in one strategy and it should help in smoothing the equity curve.

#487
if price goes sideways for to long I will exit with what everI

Thats why I use 10 min parabolic sar - it gets me out if it just sits there for too long.

#625c

what i am saying is take 30on first contract,thence movestop on second contract to B/E, thence use a 3 day trailing pivotrange.

#655c

I have attached a chart on which I have explained what sort of a stop I would use in two different circumstances,it is a Daily chart,and from this you can see when the market is trending=I would like to try for a bit longer term trade,hence a 3 day roll pivot range.when the market is confused I use a Method that I callthe AT Method.The AT Method is simply this2 contract'sThe first contract is exited at or about 30pips.I say this as for instance if I had 28pips and was approchingsome type of rist ,such as R1, R2,R3 ,pivot range or whateverI am not going to say it has to get to 30pips before I canpull it off, I am happy to get a bit and not risk a retraceat the rist point.I have found if the price starts stalling approaching rist ,it can retrace very quickly ,and all of a sudden your 28pipsis now 15 or 16 ,and then you wait a bit more and then,it is down to 10 then 9 then 8 ,and then you start lookingfor a cat, it happens all the time.The beauty of two or even more contract's is you can pull that bit of profit ,and move your stop on the secondcontract to break even,and then trail on 5min chartfollowing just below the peaks and trough's.Many Traders will tell you it is wrong,and may even prove it beyond doubt that pulling a profit while the trade is stilltrending is wrong .It may be wrong in theory ,theory is one thing ,learning to manage a trade is quite another.Another good thing about the AT Method is ,it will give you a better strike rate,and a better strike rate means the true odds come true alot faster,and the faster they come true for the novice trader the better chance he hasof lasting long enough to learn to trade without stress.To explain a bit better , if you had only one contracton ,when you were up 25 to 28 pips ,there is a good chancethat when that fast retrace comes and catches you off guard,then you only have 15 to 16 pips profit ,you will tend to hang onto the trade,and next thing you know it is in the red.by now your pissed off,so what do you do ? I don'thave to ask as I have been there more times thanI like to think about,you hold on hoping for the trade to turn in your favour,well wait untill you meet Sante Clause. so what is the end result? a losing trade,where as with two contract's you have that choice,even ifthe trade catches you off guard and your down to 16 pips,you can still pull a profit and have a winning trade.you can if you like pull both contract's at 16pips,at least you have a few choices,with one contract, you got nothing.

#1249

As far as exit's go Mark says a 3day piv is ok ,or Momentum (page 244 ,137,138)

I am looking at a 10min chart as exit via Momentum,and also entry's.

Position Sizing

What the book says is that by using the daily pivot range, you can effectively increase you bet size without increasing your risk.So if you are risking $1000 per trade, and the stop is 50 pips away, you effectively bet $20 a pip. If however, you can move your stop to say the bottom (or top) of the pivot, and that is say 25 pips away, you can double your bet size to $40 a pip for the same total dollar risk.Thats how I look at it in terms of varying my $ per pip.

I am only taking one contract per pair on mondays, tues 2contracts,if the trade looks good,that is a type ofbet spread realy.

Comments on the System

#499

Lets just say that trading this system for the last two months, I have not had a losing week - yet! I'm sure its just around the corner.The beauty of this system in my opinion is that it limits your losses, which is the big killer in most systems.Having said that, this system is almost totally discretionary, so you decide.

#535

The beauty of ACD is that it can be incorporated into other methods.

Introduction ACD Methode

Spotting Breakouts As Easy as ACD Trading guru Mark Fisher is no ordinary market player. The system he teaches is the one he and his 75-plus traders at MBF Clearing Corp. use to make a living on the New York markets day in and day out. Trading everything from basic commodities such as natural gas and crude oil to volatile stocks, his traders brave the commodity pits or work from computer terminals. Does it work? Just ask anyone at Fisher's firm what they think of the system, and they'll tell you it does. The Basics Fisher describes his ACD system and how it works in a book entitled The Logical Trader. Unlike many in the business of helping traders, he is quite happy to share the system he uses because he believes the more people there are using it, the more effective it will be. Basically, his system provides A and C points for entry of a trade, and B and D points as exits--hence the name. It is a breakout strategy that works best in volatile or trending markets with a special group of stocks and commodities (those with high volatility work best). He frequently uses natural gas and crude oil as examples in his book, but he also mentions commodities like sugar and a host of stocks. These references are good tip-offs on the kind of markets for which it is good to use the ACD.A New System is BornWhile working on a system to trade as a graduate student at the Wharton School of Business in the early 1980s, Fisher observed the importance that the opening range held in setting the tone for the trading day. In the case of crude oil (where the opening range at the time was 10 minutes), the opening range was the high or the low of the day between 17% and 23% of the time. If markets were truly random, and since there are 32 ten-minute periods in the trading day, one would expect the opening range to be the high or the low 1/16 (or 6.25%) of the time (1/32 for high and 1/32 for low). Put another way, the likelihood that the opening range will be either high or low for the day is more than three times what one would expect if market movements were truly random, as has been postulated by the random walk theory. Fisher is not the only person to have discovered this fact. A number of trading systems in use today rely on an opening range for providing clues to directional bias.Here is how a trader uses the ACD system on a given day. First, he or she monitors world markets about an hour or so before the market opens. This helps him or her get a feel for what traders around the world are doing. Next, it is important to read commodity reports. What reports are coming out today that could have a strong influence on the trader's market? A crude oil trader, for example, would follow OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries) meetings for any signs of a cutback or increase in production quotas, weather reports affecting oil consumption, the weekly oil inventory report, as well as the weekly natural gas storage figures. Once the market opens, the S&P 500 index trader, for example, follows the first 15 minutes of the market, which is the opening range (OR) used in the above example, marking high and low horizontal lines on his or her chart for the day. This trader then waits for an A up or an A down to occur. In this case, the index moves above the OR and rises a further three points putting in an A up. The trader places a stop order and buys the index at the A up. A stop loss would be set below the low value of the OR (B-exit) so that if the market moved in the undesired direction for more than this amount once the trader is in the trade, he or she would get out--best to keep the money to trade another day. If the trade continued in the desired direction for the day trader, he or she would exit the trade near the end of the day. AC down occurs if the A up signal is generated, but then the index trades down below the opening range. Using the lower limit of the OR (B exit), the trader would exit when this line is penetrated and reverse his or her position (sell short) when a C down was put in. AC down (or C up) moves are far rarer. They are interesting because the later in the day they occur, the more intense the move: the less time traders have to exit a trade on a reversal, the more urgent it becomes and hence the greater the volatility. According to Fisher, this is one instance in which staying in a trade overnight might be a good idea, as markets often experience gaps at the open of the following day.AC down occurs if the A up signal is generated, but then the index trades down below the opening range. Using the lower limit of the OR (B exit), the trader would exit when this line is penetrated and reverse his or her position (sell short) when a C down was put in. C down (or C up) moves are far rarer. They are interesting because the later in the day they occur, the more intense the move: the less time traders have to exit a trade on a reversal, the more urgent it becomes and hence the greater the volatility. According to Fisher, this is one instance in which staying in a trade overnight might be a good idea, as markets often experience gaps at the open of the following day.Choose Your Time Frame The beauty of the ACD system is that it works in almost any time frame. A day trader might use a five-minute period as his or her basis for trading, while a longer-term trader might use daily data. For a longer perspective, Fisher describes the macro ACD. This still requires reference to intraday data to determine opening range and A up or down, etc. The difference is that now the longer-term trader keeps a tally of the score each day in a running total. Fisher assigns daily values based on market action. For example, if the equity puts in an A up early in the day and never trades below the opening range, the day would earn a score of +2. If it puts in an A down and never closes above OR, he gives it a –2. His daily scale ranges from +4 to –4. A total is kept and each day the new daily value is added while the oldest score 30 days ago is removed. On a day in which the running tally is increasing, the longer-term trader would consider this bullish. The more rapidly the value is increasing or decreasing, the more bullish or bearish the signal. A full discussion of this strategy is beyond the scope of this article, but suffice it to say that Fisher has found it to work very well in providing his traders with a macro look at the market in which they trade. Those interested in learning more are advised to obtain a copy of The Logical Trader or go to Fisher's website. He offers a subscription service to those who would like to get regular information on the values of A and C points on various equities and commodities, as well as details on how to best use his system. Conclusion - Tip of the IcebergThe principles discussed here are just a glimpse of how the ACD system works, so before using it, make sure you do more reading and homework. The system is also not a plug-and-play trading strategy that can be used on any equity. Those equities that work best for ACD are highly volatile, very liquid (lots of daily trading volume), and subject to long trends--currencies tend to work very well with the ACD system. Keep in mind that, although we used the S&P 500 index in the above example, Fisher did say in a telephone interview that it does not work particularly well and that he believes there are far better candidates to trade with the ACD. It is also important to note that it does not work very well on low volatility equities stuck in a trading range.If you're looking for new and interesting trading ideas to pursue and you aren't afraid to do some work, the ACD system offers another way to look at markets and a method of taking advantage of the daily volatility and trends of stocks, commodities and currencies.

45 Ways to lose money trading forex

45 WAYS TO LOSE MONEY TRADING FOREX by Jimmy Young, CTA

Who is Jimmy Young?
Retired proven professional Bank FOREX trader with over 20 years of hands-on FOREX trading experience.

1) Knowledge Deficiency – Most new FOREX traders don’t take the time to learn what drives currency rates (primarily fundamentals). When news or a statement is due out they must close out their positions and sit out the best trading opportunities. They are taught to only trade after the market calms down. So essentially they miss the whole move and then trade the random noise that follows a fundamental price move. Just think for a moment about technically trading the aftermath of a price move; there is no potential.

2) Overtrading - Trading often with tight stops and tiny profit targets will only make the broker rich. The desire to “just” make a few hundred dollars a day by locking in tiny profits whenever possible is a losing strategy.

3) Over leveraged - Leverage is a two way street. The brokers want you to use high leverage because that means more spread income because your position size determines the amount of spread income; the bigger the position the more spread income the broker earns.

4) Relying on Others – Real traders play a lone hand; they make their own decisions and don’t rely on others to make their trading decisions for them; there is no halfway; either trade for yourself or have someone else trade for you.

5) Stop Losses – Putting tight stop losses with retail brokers is a recipe for disaster. When you put on a trade commit to a reasonable stop loss limit that allows your trade a fair chance to develop.

6) Demo Accounts – Broker demo accounts are a shill game of sorts; they’re not as time sensitive as real accounts and therefore give the impression that time sensitive trading systems, such as short-term moving average crossovers can be consistently profitably traded; once you start dealing with real money, reality is quick to set in.

7) Trading During Off Hours – Bank FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds have a huge advantage during off hours; they can push the currencies around when no volume is going through and the end game is new traders get fleeced trying to trade signals. There is only one signal during off hours – stay out.

8) Trading a Currency, Not a Pair – Being right about a currency is half a trade; success or failure depends upon being right about the second currency that makes up the pair.

9) No Trading Plan - Make money is not a trading plan. A trading plan is a blueprint for trading success; it spells out what you see your edge as being; if you don’t have an edge, you don’t have a plan, and likely you’ll wind up a statistic (part of the 95% of new traders that lose and quit).

10) Trading Against Prevailing Trend – There is a huge difference between buying cheaply on the way down and buying cheaply. What was a low price quickly becomes a high price when you’re trading against the trend.

11) Exiting Trades Poorly – If you put on a trade and it’s not working make sure you exit properly; don’t compound the damage. If you’re in a winning trade, don’t talk yourself out of the position because you’re bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.

12) Trading Too Short-term – If your profit target is less than 20 points don’t do the trade; the spread you pay to enter the trade makes the odds way against you when you go for these tiny profits.
13) Picking Tops and Bottoms - Looking for bargains works well at the supermarket but not trading foreign exchange; try to trade in the direction the price is going and your results will improve.

14) Being Too Smart – The most successful traders I know are high school graduates. They keep it simple and don’t look beyond the obvious; their results are excellent.

15) Not Trading Around News Time – Most of the big moves occur around news time. The volume is high and the moves are real; there is no better time to trade fundamentally or technically than when news is released; this is when the real money adjusts their positions and as a result the price changes reflect serious currency flow (compared to quiet times when Bank traders rule the market with their customer order flow.

16) Ignore Technical Condition – Determining whether the market is over-extended long or over-extended short is a key determinant of near time price action. Spike moves often occur when the market is all one way.

17) Emotional Trading – When you don’t pre-plan your trades essentially it’s a thought and not an idea; thoughts are emotions and a very poor basis for doing trades. Do people generally say intelligent things when they are upset and emotional? I don’t think so.

18) Lack of Confidence – Confidence only comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it’s very difficult to gain true confidence. The trick is don’t go off half-cocked. Learn the business before you trade.

19) Lack of Courage to Take a Loss – There is nothing macho or gutsy about riding a loss, just stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Getting married to a bad position ruins lots of traders. The thing to remember is the market does crazy things often, so don’t get married to any one trade. It’s just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; rather it’s monthly and annual performance that defines a good trader.

20) Not Focusing on the Trade at Hand – There is no room for fantasizing in successful trading. Counting up and mentally spending profits you haven’t made yet is mental masturbation and does you no good. Same with worrying about a loss that hasn’t happened yet. Focus on your position and have a reasonable stop loss in place at the time you do the trade. Then be like an astronaut – sit back and enjoy the ride. No sense worrying because you have no real control. The market will do what it wants to do.

21) Interpreting FOREX News Incorrectly – Fact is the press only has a very superficial understanding of the news they are reporting and tend to focus on one element and miss the point. Learn to read the source documents and understand it for real.

22) Lucky or Good – Your account balance changes don’t tell you the whole story about your trading. Fact is if you are taking a lot of risk and making money you will eventually crash and burn. Look at the individual trade details. Focus on your big loses and losing streaks. Ask yourself this, "If I had a couple of consecutive losing streaks or a couple of consecutive big loses, how would my account balance look?" Generally, traders making money without big daily loses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance. The others are accidents waiting to happen.

23) Too Many Charity Trades – When you make money on a well thought out trade don’t give back half on a whim. Invest your profits from good trades on the next good trade.

24) Courage Under Fire – When a policeman breaks down the door to a drug dealer's apartment he is scared but he does it anyway. When a fireman climbs onto the roof of a burning building he is scared but does it anyway, and gets the job done. Same with trading. It’s ok to be scared but you have to pull the trigger. No trigger – no trades – no profits – no trader.

25) Quality Trading Time – I suggest 3 hours a day of quality, focused trading time. That’s about all your brain allows. When you are trading be 100% focused. Half way is bullshit - it doesn’t work. Don’t even think that time spent in front of the computer watching the rates has any correlation to profitability - it doesn’t. Spend less time but when your trading be 100% focused on trading.

26) Rationalizing – Killer. Absolute Killer. Put your trade on and let it run. If it hits your reasonable pre-determined stop you're out. Think of yourself as a prize fighter. You just got knocked out. Moving your stop is like getting up after being crushed with a knockout blow. It’s pointless. Things will only get worse. Don’t ignore the obvious. You're wrong – get out. Come back the next day and try again. A small loss will not hurt you - a catastrophic loss will.

27) Mixing Apples and Oranges – Have you ever done this? You see the EURUSD trading higher so you buy GBPUSD because it “hasn’t moved yet”. That’s a mistake. Most of the time the reason the GBPUSD hasn’t moved yet is because it's already overbought or some 4:30am UK news was bearish. Don’t mix apples and oranges. If EURUSD looks bid buy EURUSD.

28) Avoiding the Hard Trades – Bank FX traders have an axiom "the harder the trade is to do the better the trade". This I learned from experience. When I needed to buy EURUSD and it was hard to get them, that’s when it’s necessary to pay up and get the business done. When it’s easy to get them, then sit back and wait for better levels. So if you are trying to get into a trade, or more importantly get out of a trade, don’t putz around for a few points -get your business done.

29) Too Much Detail – If your trading more than 2 indicators then you need to clean house. Having many indicators stifles trading and finds reasons not to trade. A setup and a trigger is all you need.

30) Giving Up Too Easy – Your first trade of the day may not be your best but certainly it’s no reason to quit. I have a preset daily trading limit and I use it. You can’t make money by making excuses. Getting trades wrong is natural and should be expected.

31) Jumping the Gun – Don’t be penny wise and dollar foolish. Wait for your trade signal to be clear. Put on your trade and give it a decent size stop loss so that you don’t get knocked out by random noise.

32) Afraid to Take a Loss - trading is not personal, it’s business. Don’t think that a poor trade is a reflection on you. It could be your just ahead of your time or a commercial order hits the market and temporarily creates a small unexpected move. Again, place your stop beforehand and NEVER increase your pre-determined risk. If it’s going bad it will probably get worse. I think that’s Einstein's “in motion stays in motion…”

33) Over-Relying on Risk Reward – There is zero advantage in risk reward. If you put a 20 point stop and a 60 point profit your chances are probably 3-1 that you will lose. Actually with the spread its more like 4 to 1 (from entry point if it goes down 17 points you lose, or up 63 - you win; 17/63 is close to 4-1).

34) Trading for Wrong Reasons – Because the EURUSD is going up is not in itself a reason to buy. Buying EURUSD because it's not moving much is even worse. You’re paying the toll (spread) without even a hint that you will get a directional move. If your bored, don’t trade; the reason your bored is there is no trade to do in the first place.

35) Rumors – Rumors are rumors almost 100% of the time. Think about where in the motion you heard the rumor. If EURUSD is up 50 points in last 15 minutes and the rumor is dollar negative, well - then you missed it. Whenever you in motion with the trade, determine where you are entering.

36) Trading Short-term Moving Average Crossovers – This is the money sucker of the century. When the shorter term moving average cross the longer term moving average, it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. For the life of me, I cannot understand why this is bullish or bearish. Easy to set up on software, complete with lights, bells and whistles, and good for the seller getting thousands for the software but in terms of creating profit - it’s a zero.

37) Stochastic – Another money sucker. Personally I think this indicator is used backwards. When it first signals an overdone condition, that’s when I think the big spike in the “overdone” currency pair occurs. To be overbought means strong and oversold means weak. Try buying on the first sign of overbought and selling on the first sign of oversold. You’ll be with the trend and likely have identified a move with plenty of juice left.

38) Wrong Broker – A lot of FOREX brokers are horrible. Get a good one. Read forums and chats in several different places to get an unbiased opinion.

39) Simulated Results – Watch out for “black box” systems. These are trading systems that don’t divulge how the trade signals are generated. Great majority of them are absolute garbage. They show you a track record of extraordinary results but think about it. If you could build a trading system with half a dozen filters using the benefit of hindsight, couldn’t you too come up with a great system. Of course going forward is an entirely different story. High-speed number crunching capabilities allows for building great hindsight trading systems, so BEWARE.

40) Inconsistency – Every business (FOREX trading included) requires a business plan (trading plan). Unless you have taken the time to write down a set of rules that you can and will follow, it’s likely your trading will remain unfocused and directionless. Make a plan, have rules, follow them. Set goals that are realistic and you will achieve them.

41) Master of None – Focus on one currency for technical trading. Each currency has a unique way of trading and unless you get intimate with it you will never truly understand its underlying idiosyncrasies. Don’t spread yourself too thin – focus, master one currency at a time.

42) Thinking Long Term – Don’t do it. Stay in the moment. Especially if you’re a day trader. It doesn’t matter what happens next week or next month. If you are trading with 30 to 50 point stops, restrict your thought process to what’s happening right now. That is not to stay the long-term trend is not important. It is to say the long-term trend will not always help you when your trading a significantly shorter time frame.

43) Overconfidence – Trading is not easy. Statistics show 95% failure rate. If you're doing well, don’t take your success for granted. Always be on the lookout for ways to improve what you’re already doing.

44) Getting Pumped Up – The trick is to maintain an even keel. When you are in a trade, you want to think exactly as you would if you didn’t have a trade on. To do this requires a relaxed disposition. This is not a football game. Don’t get psyched up. Relax and try to enjoy it.

45) Staying in the Game – I don’t recommend demo trading because traders learn bad habits when trading with play money. I also don’t think “letting it all hang out” right away is wise either. Start off doing trades and taking risk that is relatively small but still makes a difference to you if you win or lose. About a quarter to a third of what you expect to reach as your trading matures is reasonable.